TX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TX - Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares
$39.82
-0.92 (-2.26%)
▼
5d:
+3.08%
30d:
-4.6%
90d:
+4.27%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TX trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -4.3% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$90.77
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$56.36
29.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TX is currently trading at $39.82, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.05 to $42.01. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.6) compared to its historical average (7.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.96, while resistance sits at $41.08.
Market Sentiment: TX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $36.96, while resistance sits at $41.08.
Market Sentiment: TX has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$38.05 -
$42.01
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.19)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$38.05 -
$42.01
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.31
(5.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$36.96
Resistance Level
$41.08
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.56
Wall Street Target
$40.19
(-1.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-56.5%
Profit Margin
2.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.6 vs 7.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.99
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$37.31
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$35.71
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$40.85
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 64.7%)
$468.79
(+1051%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.6, Growth: 64.7%)
$137.50
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.6, Growth: 64.7%)
$116.87
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.04 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.20
Bull Case
$82.46
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 18.7
Base Case
$74.96
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$25.49
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.6 to 7.5
Stabilization Target:
$46.61
(+14.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 3:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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