TX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TX - Ternium S.A. American Depositary Shares
$41.84
-1.72 (-3.95%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: TX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.70
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.49
15.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TX is currently trading at $41.84, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $38.91 to $42.87. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$38.91 -
$42.87
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($39.69)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.1% growth with -11.7% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$38.91 -
$42.87
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.67
(4.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.12
Resistance Level
$44.16
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.51
Wall Street Target
$39.69
(-8.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-34.9%
Profit Margin
3.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
8.5 vs 8.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.47
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$45.41
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$46.36
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$43.56
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 63.1%)
$385.03
(+784%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.5, Growth: 63.1%)
$147.02
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: 63.1%)
$124.96
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.97 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.90
Bull Case
$84.24
(+101%)
Analyst growth 76.4%, PE expands to 16.5
Base Case
$76.58
(+83%)
Market implied 76.4%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$29.52
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TX Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TX price and gamma walls.
