TXN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated
$196.30
2.16 (1.11%)
▲
5d:
-0.24%
30d:
-3.14%
90d:
+11.9%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
19d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TXN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TXN shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$334.11
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$207.45
5.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXN is currently trading at $196.30, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $188.98 to $207.20. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 25.6) is in line with its historical norms (28.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $198.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TXN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $221.55 (+12.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $198.97. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: TXN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $221.55 (+12.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$188.98 -
$207.20
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($221.55)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$188.98 -
$207.20
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.90
Resistance Level
$198.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.55
Wall Street Target
$221.55
(+12.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.6 vs 28.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$190.21
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$184.32
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$178.60
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 26→28)
$196.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.6, Growth: 19.7%)
$336.40
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.7%)
$294.21
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 19.7%)
$250.08
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (26x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.45
Bull Case
$290.22
(+54%)
Analyst growth 40.9%, PE expands to 37.8
Base Case
$263.83
(+40%)
Market implied 40.9%, PE stable at 34.4
Bear Case
$127.29
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.6 to 28.1
Stabilization Target:
$215.85
(+10.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 9:12 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Hagop H Kozanian
SELL
6843 shares
2026-02-17
Ahmad Bahai
SELL
6500 shares
2026-02-11
Mark Gary
SELL
12921 shares
2026-02-11
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Advanced TXN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXN price and gamma walls.
