TXN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXN - Texas Instruments Incorporated
$186.42
-3.91 (-2.05%)
▼
5d:
-1.17%
30d:
-12.11%
90d:
+5.39%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TXN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TXN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$334.11
Based on 11.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$207.45
10.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXN is currently trading at $186.42, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $189.27 to $210.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 24.3) compared to its historical average (28.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $184.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $221.55 (+18.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $184.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXN has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $221.55 (+18.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$189.27 -
$210.29
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TXN? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($221.55)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$189.27 -
$210.29
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$184.90
Resistance Level
$198.97
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.27
Wall Street Target
$221.55
(+18.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-3.2%
Profit Margin
28.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
24.3 vs 28.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$177.47
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$168.95
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$160.84
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→28)
$186.90
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.3, Growth: 19.7%)
$319.47
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 19.7%)
$294.21
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 19.7%)
$250.08
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (34x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.45
Bull Case
$290.22
(+54%)
Analyst growth 40.9%, PE expands to 37.8
Base Case
$263.83
(+40%)
Market implied 40.9%, PE stable at 34.4
Bear Case
$127.29
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 24.3 to 28.2
Stabilization Target:
$216.62
(+16.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 6:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Hagop H Kozanian
SELL
6843 shares
2026-02-17
Ahmad Bahai
SELL
6500 shares
2026-02-11
Mark Gary
SELL
12921 shares
2026-02-11
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Advanced TXN Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXN price and gamma walls.
