TXNM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXNM - TXNM Energy, Inc.
$59.34
-0.01 (-0.02%)
▼
5d:
+0.17%
30d:
+0.53%
90d:
+0.07%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 08, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TXNM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: TXNM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$84.00
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$52.16
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXNM is currently trading at $59.34, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $58.82 to $59.17. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.0) is in line with its historical norms (19.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXNM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $58.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXNM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXNM is showing sideways momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $58.90. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXNM has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$58.82 -
$59.17
Company Quality Score
67/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($60.79)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$58.82 -
$59.17
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.90
Resistance Level
$59.48
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.01
Wall Street Target
$60.79
(+2.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-68.7%
Profit Margin
6.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
18.0 vs 19.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$58.21
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$57.11
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$56.02
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→19)
$59.43
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 7.9%)
$91.19
(+54%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.0, Growth: 7.9%)
$74.50
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.3, Growth: 7.9%)
$63.33
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.41
Bull Case
$130.57
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 46.3
Base Case
$118.70
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 42.1
Bear Case
$40.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 18.0 to 19.1
Stabilization Target:
$62.95
(+6.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 7:37 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:37 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:37 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXNM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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