TXT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXT - Textron, Inc.
$88.06
0.24 (0.27%)
▲
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
TXT is down 7.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $100 2026-03-20 with 3,297 OI. Call ratio: 97% View Scanner →
Strength: 8.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TXT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TXT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$143.13
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$88.87
0.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXT is currently trading at $88.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $88.44 to $94.31. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.5) compared to its historical average (13.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 74.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $84.32, while resistance sits at $96.98.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.41 (+12.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXT is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $84.32, while resistance sits at $96.98.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.41 (+12.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$88.44 -
$94.31
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TXT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($98.41)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.3% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$88.44 -
$94.31
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$84.32
Resistance Level
$96.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.49
Wall Street Target
$98.41
(+12.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
74.3%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.5 vs 13.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.40
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$81.10
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$77.94
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→13)
$88.20
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.2%)
$234.45
(+167%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.5, Growth: 11.2%)
$120.78
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.8, Growth: 11.2%)
$102.66
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.95 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.12
Bull Case
$142.54
(+62%)
Analyst growth 49.3%, PE expands to 18.7
Base Case
$129.58
(+47%)
Market implied 49.3%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$59.02
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.5 to 13.0
Stabilization Target:
$99.38
(+13.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.2%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 8:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:11 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:11 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced TXT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXT price and gamma walls.
