TXT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TXT - Textron, Inc.
$87.56
1.61 (1.87%)
▲
5d:
-3.33%
30d:
-13.03%
90d:
-1.33%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 23, 2026
22d
Smart Money Accumulation
TXT is down 3.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $90 2026-06-18 with 544 OI. Call ratio: 99% View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: TXT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: TXT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$140.41
Based on 8.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.19
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TXT is currently trading at $87.56, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.50 to $99.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.0) is in line with its historical norms (12.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 74.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $85.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.28 (+13.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TXT is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $85.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: TXT has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.28 (+13.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$90.50 -
$99.00
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TXT? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($99.28)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$90.50 -
$99.00
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$85.61
Resistance Level
$92.04
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.02
Wall Street Target
$99.28
(+13.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
74.4%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.0 vs 12.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.55
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$83.58
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$81.66
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$87.67
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 12.8%)
$233.63
(+167%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.0, Growth: 12.8%)
$125.60
(+43%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.2, Growth: 12.8%)
$106.76
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.12
Bull Case
$139.06
(+56%)
Analyst growth 42.4%, PE expands to 19.1
Base Case
$126.42
(+42%)
Market implied 42.4%, PE stable at 17.3
Bear Case
$60.36
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.0 to 12.9
Stabilization Target:
$94.01
(+7.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TXT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
E Robert Lupone
SELL
28056 shares
2026-02-17
Mark S Bamford
SELL
19808 shares
2026-02-17
Julie G Duffy
SELL
19857 shares
2026-02-13
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Advanced TXT Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TXT price and gamma walls.
