TYL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
TYL - Tyler Technologies, Inc.
$369.40
-10.60 (-2.79%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 11, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TYL is down 15.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: TYL is down 15.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$441.12
Based on 7.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$273.90
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: TYL is currently trading at $369.40, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $417.77 to $461.12. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 30.2) compared to its historical average (36.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 10.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TYL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $368.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $617.67 (+62.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, TYL is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $368.56. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $617.67 (+62.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$417.77 -
$461.12
Company Quality Score
42/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
42th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding TYL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 42th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 62.5% below Wall St target ($617.67)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -15.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$417.77 -
$461.12
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$25.60
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$368.56
Resistance Level
$445.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.25
Wall Street Target
$617.67
(+62.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.9%
Profit Margin
13.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.3 vs 36.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$358.34
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$337.91
(-11%)
3-Year Target
$318.65
(-16%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 30→36)
$380.34
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.2, Growth: 10.1%)
$506.85
(+33%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.1%)
$373.70
(-2%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 10.1%)
$317.65
(-16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (30x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 33.22 | Forward EPS (Implied): $11.12
Bull Case
$446.05
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 34.9
Base Case
$369.40
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 33.2
Bear Case
$282.59
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 29.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.2 to 36.1
Stabilization Target:
$453.56
(+19.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.4%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is TYL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Glenn A Carter
SELL
750 shares
2025-09-15
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-09-11
John S Marr Jr
SELL
4000 shares
2025-09-09
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Advanced TYL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's TYL price and gamma walls.
