UGP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
$4.78
-0.07 (-1.44%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UGP is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: UGP is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.83
Based on -2.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.38
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGP is currently trading at $4.78, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.73 to $4.51. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 12.3) compared to its historical average (11.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.07, while resistance sits at $4.92.
Market Sentiment: UGP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.07, while resistance sits at $4.92.
Market Sentiment: UGP has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$3.73 -
$4.51
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
UGP is technically overbought (RSI 77). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.0% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($4.77)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$3.73 -
$4.51
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.07
Resistance Level
$4.93
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.31
Wall Street Target
$4.77
(-0.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
10.1%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.7% premium
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 11.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.96
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$5.14
(+8%)
3-Year Target
$5.33
(+12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→11)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.81
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -8.5%)
$6.62
(+39%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: -8.5%)
$3.66
(-24%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: -8.5%)
$3.11
(-35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 9.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.52
Bull Case
$3.97
(-17%)
Analyst growth -25.3%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$3.61
(-25%)
Market implied -25.3%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$3.28
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 1:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced UGP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's UGP price and gamma walls.
