UGP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.

Natural Gas Distribution
$5.56
0.22 (4.15%) ▲
5d: +5.34%
30d: +11.91%
90d: +49.51%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡
Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UGP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.28
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.76
3.5% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: UGP is currently trading at $5.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.95 to $5.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.

Market Sentiment: UGP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED
Fair Price Range $4.95 - $5.33
Company Quality Score 61/100 (BUY)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 61.9%

All Signals

  • BEARISH: Price extended above range
  • BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
  • NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($5.37)

Fair Price Analysis

30-Day Fair Range $4.95 - $5.33
Current vs Fair Value EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $4.88
Resistance Level $5.57
Current Trend Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of Mar 31, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.85
Wall Street Target $5.37 (+0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) 7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY) -59.5%
Profit Margin 1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History -1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical 10.9 vs 11.5 FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -1.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $5.24 (-2%)
2-Year Target $5.14 (-4%)
3-Year Target $5.04 (-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 11→12) $5.34 (0%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.0%) $17.63 (+230%)
Base: (SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 17.0%) $8.56 (+60%)
Bear: (PE: 9.2, Growth: 17.0%) $7.28 (+36%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.45
Bull Case $5.91 (+14%)
Analyst growth 9.3%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case $5.37 (+3%)
Market implied 9.3%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case $3.34 (-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 11.5
Stabilization Target: $5.66 (+6.0%)
PE Expansion Potential: +6.0%
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Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 PM
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Insider Activity (6 Months)
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Buys
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Sells
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Net
NEUTRAL

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