UGP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UGP - Ultrapar Participacoes S.A.
$5.56
0.22 (4.15%)
▲
5d:
+5.34%
30d:
+11.91%
90d:
+49.51%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UGP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UGP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$9.28
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.76
3.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UGP is currently trading at $5.56, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.95 to $5.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.8) is in line with its historical norms (11.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: UGP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UGP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.57. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: UGP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$4.95 -
$5.33
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($5.37)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$4.95 -
$5.33
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.88
Resistance Level
$5.57
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.85
Wall Street Target
$5.37
(+0.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-59.5%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
10.9 vs 11.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.24
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$5.14
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$5.04
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→12)
$5.34
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.0%)
$17.63
(+230%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.9, Growth: 17.0%)
$8.56
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.2, Growth: 17.0%)
$7.28
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.45
Bull Case
$5.91
(+14%)
Analyst growth 9.3%, PE expands to 12.0
Base Case
$5.37
(+3%)
Market implied 9.3%, PE stable at 10.9
Bear Case
$3.34
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 10.9 to 11.5
Stabilization Target:
$5.66
(+6.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 1:25 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:25 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UGP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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