UPST Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UPST - Upstart Holdings, Inc. Common stock
$39.25
-2.28 (-5.49%)
▼
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
8d
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3 traders called UPST this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: UPST is down 13.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: UPST is down 13.3% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$88.60
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$55.02
28.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UPST is currently trading at $39.25, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.87 to $49.35. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.4) compared to its historical average (19.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 209.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.64 (+44.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UPST is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $38.92. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.5% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $56.64 (+44.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$43.87 -
$49.35
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding UPST? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.5%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.3% below Wall St target ($56.64)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -13.3% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$43.87 -
$49.35
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.92
Resistance Level
$49.26
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.39
Wall Street Target
$56.64
(+44.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
65.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
209.1%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.4 vs 19.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.33
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$35.50
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$33.76
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→19)
$39.13
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 43.2%)
$156.92
(+300%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.4, Growth: 43.2%)
$115.34
(+194%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.9, Growth: 43.2%)
$98.03
(+150%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 17.99 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.18
Bull Case
$47.39
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$39.25
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 18.0
Bear Case
$30.03
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 16.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.4 to 19.0
Stabilization Target:
$45.50
(+15.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.9%
Last updated: February 01, 2026 12:51 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:51 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UPST showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Dave Girouard
SELL
41667 shares
2025-09-15
Kerry Whorton Cooper
SELL
500 shares
2025-09-02
Paul Gu
SELL
5000 shares
2025-09-02
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