USFD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USFD - US Foods Holding Corp.
$90.96
0.10 (0.11%)
▲
5d:
+1.82%
30d:
-5.85%
90d:
+19.1%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 14, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
USFD is up 10.6% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $80 2026-04-17 with 857 OI. Put ratio: 93% View Scanner →
Strength: 9.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: USFD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: USFD shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$159.17
Based on 11.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$98.83
8.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USFD is currently trading at $90.96, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $90.23 to $95.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.2) is in line with its historical norms (16.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 205.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $93.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.53 (+20.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $93.35. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.53 (+20.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$90.23 -
$95.21
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.4% below Wall St target ($109.53)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$90.23 -
$95.21
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$87.92
Resistance Level
$93.35
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.16
Wall Street Target
$109.53
(+20.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
205.9%
Profit Margin
1.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.2 vs 16.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$89.60
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$88.25
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$86.93
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→17)
$90.92
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 17.9%)
$206.46
(+127%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.2, Growth: 17.9%)
$149.26
(+64%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 17.9%)
$126.87
(+40%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (16x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.94
Bull Case
$187.18
(+110%)
Analyst growth 90.3%, PE expands to 33.5
Base Case
$170.16
(+91%)
Market implied 90.3%, PE stable at 30.4
Bear Case
$60.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.2 to 16.9
Stabilization Target:
$95.14
(+4.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 6:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is USFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
James David Works Jr
SELL
65737 shares
2026-02-18
Steven Guberman
SELL
58632 shares
2025-11-11
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