USFD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USFD - US Foods Holding Corp.
$83.62
-0.64 (-0.76%)
▼
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 12, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: USFD is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: USFD is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.2% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$134.99
Based on 11.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$83.82
0.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USFD is currently trading at $83.62, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.69 to $83.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.8) is in line with its historical norms (16.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $85.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: USFD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USFD is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $85.85. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: USFD has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$75.69 -
$83.11
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding USFD? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($91.62)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$75.69 -
$83.11
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$79.87
Resistance Level
$85.85
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.77
Wall Street Target
$91.63
(+9.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 16.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$85.46
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$87.34
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$89.26
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$83.36
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 19.4%)
$178.38
(+113%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 19.4%)
$142.18
(+70%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 19.4%)
$120.85
(+45%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (35x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 34.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.40
Bull Case
$180.67
(+116%)
Analyst growth 96.0%, PE expands to 38.4
Base Case
$164.24
(+96%)
Market implied 96.0%, PE stable at 34.9
Bear Case
$56.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 29.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 12:09 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:09 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is USFD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-08-13
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