USPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
USPH - US Physical Therapy Inc
$65.09
4.95 (8.23%)
▲
5d:
+10.32%
30d:
-15.1%
90d:
-25.65%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: USPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: USPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$141.32
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$87.75
25.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: USPH is currently trading at $65.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.66 to $77.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.9) compared to its historical average (24.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USPH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $58.19, while resistance sits at $75.87. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: USPH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.83 (+51.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, USPH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $58.19, while resistance sits at $75.87. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 8.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: USPH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $98.83 (+51.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$65.66 -
$77.88
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+8.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 51.8% below Wall St target ($98.83)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$65.66 -
$77.88
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$58.19
Resistance Level
$75.87
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.91
Wall Street Target
$98.83
(+51.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.6%
Profit Margin
4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.9 vs 24.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$60.40
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$56.05
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$52.02
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→25)
$65.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 19.6%)
$123.41
(+90%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 19.6%)
$111.48
(+71%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 19.6%)
$94.76
(+46%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.19 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.07
Bull Case
$78.60
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.3
Base Case
$65.09
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.2
Bear Case
$49.79
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.9 to 24.9
Stabilization Target:
$81.40
(+25.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 8:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:49 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is USPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Graham D Reeve
SELL
662 shares
2026-03-11
Richard Binstein
SELL
3000 shares
2026-03-06
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