UTL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UTL - Unitil Corporation
$52.24
-0.90 (-1.69%)
▼
5d:
+1.22%
30d:
+0.4%
90d:
+6.76%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UTL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UTL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.7% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$68.84
Based on 5.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$42.75
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UTL is currently trading at $52.24, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.67 to $52.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.1) is in line with its historical norms (15.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 8.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UTL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UTL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $53.42. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (9th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$51.67 -
$52.90
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
9th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 9th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($56.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$51.67 -
$52.90
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$1.86
(3.6%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.19
Resistance Level
$53.42
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.05
Wall Street Target
$56.00
(+7.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
8.6%
Profit Margin
9.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 15.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.87
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$51.51
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$51.15
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$52.32
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 6.4%)
$93.53
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 6.4%)
$63.00
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 6.4%)
$53.55
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.97
Bull Case
$65.08
(+26%)
Analyst growth 16.8%, PE expands to 18.8
Base Case
$59.17
(+15%)
Market implied 16.8%, PE stable at 17.1
Bear Case
$34.44
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 15.4
Stabilization Target:
$53.44
(+2.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 5:07 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:07 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UTL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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