UVSP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVSP - Univest Financial Corporation Common Stock
$44.13
-1.02 (-2.26%)
▼
5d:
+1.49%
30d:
+10.66%
90d:
+26.74%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 22, 2026
17d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: UVSP trades at premium valuation expecting 4.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: UVSP trades at premium valuation expecting 4.8% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.48
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.86
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVSP is currently trading at $44.13, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.93 to $43.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 11.7) compared to its historical average (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVSP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVSP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVSP is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $41.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: UVSP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$39.93 -
$43.47
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($40.00)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.8% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.93 -
$43.47
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.50
Resistance Level
$41.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.73
Wall Street Target
$40.00
(-9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.7%
Profit Margin
29.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
11.7 vs 10.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.25
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$48.47
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$50.79
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.18
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.8%)
$91.58
(+108%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.7, Growth: 3.8%)
$49.31
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 3.8%)
$41.91
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.32
Bull Case
$56.30
(+28%)
Analyst growth 13.4%, PE expands to 15.0
Base Case
$51.18
(+16%)
Market implied 13.4%, PE stable at 13.6
Bear Case
$30.70
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 7:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVSP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Natalye Paquin
BUY
580 shares
2026-02-02
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