UVSP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
UVSP - Univest Financial Corporation Common Stock
$37.63
-0.49 (-1.29%)
▼
5d:
-3.24%
30d:
+2.76%
90d:
+7.7%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UVSP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: UVSP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.57
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.29
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: UVSP is currently trading at $37.63, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.89 to $38.38. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.0) is in line with its historical norms (10.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVSP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, UVSP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $37.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$36.89 -
$38.38
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($40.00)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.89 -
$38.38
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$37.37
Resistance Level
$39.06
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.00
Wall Street Target
$40.00
(+6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
24.7%
Profit Margin
29.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.0 vs 10.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.67
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$37.71
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$37.74
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
$37.75
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 3.8%)
$92.80
(+147%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.0, Growth: 3.8%)
$42.04
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.5, Growth: 3.8%)
$35.74
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.32
Bull Case
$47.12
(+25%)
Analyst growth 13.4%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$42.84
(+14%)
Market implied 13.4%, PE stable at 11.4
Bear Case
$25.70
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 2:54 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:54 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:54 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is UVSP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Natalye Paquin
BUY
580 shares
2026-02-02
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