VEL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VEL - Velocity Financial, Inc.
$20.29
-0.11 (-0.54%)
ā¼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: VEL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
š” BUY OPPORTUNITY: VEL shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.0% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.68
Based on -0.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.60
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VEL is currently trading at $20.29, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $18.80 to $20.08. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (7.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VEL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.98, while resistance sits at $21.00.
Market Sentiment: VEL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VEL is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $18.98, while resistance sits at $21.00.
Market Sentiment: VEL has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$18.80 -
$20.08
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
66.2%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($21.67)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$18.80 -
$20.08
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
Ā±$0.77
(3.8%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.98
Resistance Level
$21.00
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.95
Wall Street Target
$21.67
(+6.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
162.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
48.5%
Profit Margin
39.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 7.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.81
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$21.22
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$21.65
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8ā8)
PE COMPRESSION
$20.43
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: -5.1%)
$48.99
(+140%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: -5.1%)
$17.46
(-14%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: -5.1%)
$14.84
(-27%)
š
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.43
Bull Case
$23.41
(+15%)
Analyst growth 5.6%, PE expands to 9.1
Base Case
$21.28
(+4%)
Market implied 5.6%, PE stable at 8.3
Bear Case
$13.70
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VEL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Mark R Szczepaniak
SELL
1572 shares
2025-10-01
Mark R Szczepaniak
SELL
1572 shares
2025-09-02
Mark R Szczepaniak
SELL
1572 shares
2025-08-12
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Advanced VEL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VEL price and gamma walls.
