VIV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VIV - Telefonica Brasil, S.A. American Depositary Shares (each representing two (2) Common Shares)
$14.18
-0.27 (-1.87%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 24, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VIV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: VIV shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.92
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.47
8.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VIV is currently trading at $14.18, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $11.76 to $13.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 2.8) compared to its historical average (2.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIV is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $11.93, while resistance sits at $14.67.
Market Sentiment: VIV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VIV is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $11.93, while resistance sits at $14.67.
Market Sentiment: VIV has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$11.76 -
$13.63
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.4%
Protect Your Profits
VIV is technically overbought (RSI 70). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.59)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$11.76 -
$13.63
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.99
(7.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$11.93
Resistance Level
$14.67
Current Trend
Sideways
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.82
Wall Street Target
$14.59
(+1.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
15.6%
Profit Margin
10.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.6% premium
PE vs Historical
2.8 vs 2.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.97
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$15.51
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$16.07
(+11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 3→3)
PE COMPRESSION
$14.23
(-2%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 32.8%)
$267.53
(+1751%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.8, Growth: 32.8%)
$33.87
(+134%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.4, Growth: 32.8%)
$28.79
(+99%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (3x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.72
Bull Case
$31.97
(+125%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 22.2
Base Case
$29.06
(+105%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 20.2
Bear Case
$9.88
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VIV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VIV price and gamma walls.
