Is VRNS stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, VRNS is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: VRNS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of VRNS stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for VRNS to be between $22.94 and $27.56. The current price is $28.18.

What is the analyst price target for VRNS?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for VRNS is $36.32. This implies a potential upside of 28.9% from current levels.

VRNS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

VRNS - Varonis Systems, Inc.

SERVICES-PREPACKAGED SOFTWARE

$28.18

0.96 (3.53%) ▲

5d: -1.23%

30d: +17.91%

90d: +11.12%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your VRNS Gains

Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 28, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

VRNS is down 5.1% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $35 2026-06-18 with 3,040 OI. Call ratio: 98% View Scanner →

Strength: 7.4/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VRNS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$18.61

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$11.56

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: VRNS is currently trading at $28.18, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $22.94 to $27.56. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 73.7) is in line with its historical norms (75.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, VRNS is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $26.36, while resistance sits at $29.53. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.5% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.32 (+28.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $22.94 - $27.56

Company Quality Score 56/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 55.7%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.5%)
BULLISH: Trading 28.9% below Wall St target ($36.32)

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $22.94 - $27.56

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $26.36

Resistance Level $29.53

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of May 15, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 73.71

Wall Street Target $36.32 (+28.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 26.9%

Profit Margin -19.8%

Valuation Discount vs History -0.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 73.7 vs 75.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -0.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $27.98 (-1%)

2-Year Target $27.79 (-1%)

3-Year Target $27.59 (-2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 74→75) $28.19 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 73.7, Growth: 222.1%) $95.11 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 22.1, Growth: 222.1%) $28.48 (+1%)

Bear: (PE: 18.8, Growth: 222.1%) $24.20 (-14%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 73.7 to 75.3

Stabilization Target: $28.79 (+2.2%)

PE Expansion Potential: +2.2%

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Last updated: May 15, 2026 8:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:21 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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INSIDERS BUYING

Recent Transactions

David Bass BUY 2980 shares 2026-02-09

Avrohom J Kess BUY 17800 shares 2026-02-06

John J Gavin Jr BUY 5000 shares 2026-02-06

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Advanced VRNS Option Strategies

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