VRNS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VRNS - Varonis Systems, Inc.
$42.86
0.97 (2.32%)
▲
5d:
+11.15%
30d:
+19.45%
90d:
+97.15%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
30d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: VRNS is 12.7% above its trading range ($38.04). Market expects 12.7% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: VRNS is 12.7% above its trading range ($38.04). Market expects 12.7% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.61
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VRNS is currently trading at $42.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.66 to $38.04. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 112.1) compared to its historical average (78.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 12.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRNS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $43.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VRNS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $37.05. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VRNS is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $43.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: VRNS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $37.05. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$31.66 -
$38.04
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.9%
Protect Your Profits
VRNS is technically overbought (RSI 81). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+12.7% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 13.6% above Wall St target ($37.05)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 12.7% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$31.66 -
$38.04
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.75
Resistance Level
$43.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
112.14
Wall Street Target
$37.05
(-13.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.9%
Profit Margin
-19.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+12.7% premium
PE vs Historical
112.1 vs 78.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+12.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.30
(+13%)
2-Year Target
$54.44
(+27%)
3-Year Target
$61.35
(+43%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 112→78)
PE COMPRESSION
$42.84
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 112.1, Growth: 222.0%)
$144.65
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 222.0%)
$28.09
(-35%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 222.0%)
$23.88
(-44%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 6:51 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:51 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:51 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VRNS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
David Bass
BUY
2980 shares
2026-02-09
Avrohom J Kess
BUY
17800 shares
2026-02-06
John J Gavin Jr
BUY
5000 shares
2026-02-06
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's VRNS price and gamma walls.
