VSEC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
VSEC - VSE Corp
$166.49
-4.40 (-2.58%)
▼
5d:
-5.38%
30d:
-26.68%
90d:
-7.25%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: VSEC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: VSEC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$282.98
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$175.71
5.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: VSEC is currently trading at $166.49, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $181.92 to $223.33. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 29.4) compared to its historical average (42.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VSEC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $168.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $262.00 (+53.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, VSEC is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $168.00. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (4th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $262.00 (+53.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$181.92 -
$223.33
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
4th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 4th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 53.3% below Wall St target ($262.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -5.4% 5-day decline
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$181.92 -
$223.33
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.73
(5.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$168.00
Resistance Level
$197.03
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
29.40
Wall Street Target
$262.00
(+53.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
32.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-7.0%
Profit Margin
1.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
29.4 vs 42.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$153.80
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$138.42
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$124.58
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 29→42)
$179.67
(+5%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 29.4, Growth: 25.5%)
$338.07
(+98%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.4, Growth: 25.5%)
$257.57
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 25.5%)
$218.94
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (47x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (29x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 46.95 | Forward EPS (Implied): $3.75
Bull Case
$212.46
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 49.3
Base Case
$175.95
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 47.0
Bear Case
$134.60
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 42.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 29.4 to 42.4
Stabilization Target:
$246.45
(+44.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+44.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is VSEC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Markwayne Mullin
BUY
2026-02-04
Markwayne Mullin
BUY
2026-01-05
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