WMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WMG - Warner Music Group Corp. Class A Common Stock
$29.98
0.11 (0.37%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: WMG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: WMG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.00
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.19
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WMG is currently trading at $29.98, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.81 to $30.81. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.2) is in line with its historical norms (18.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 167.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.67 (+26.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WMG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $29.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $37.67 (+26.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$29.81 -
$30.81
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.1% below Wall St target ($37.67)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$29.81 -
$30.81
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.39
Resistance Level
$31.16
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.17
Wall Street Target
$37.67
(+26.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
167.9%
Profit Margin
5.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.2 vs 18.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.97
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$28.10
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$27.26
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→19)
$29.85
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 11.1%)
$53.14
(+78%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.2, Growth: 11.1%)
$40.91
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.6, Growth: 11.1%)
$34.78
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.25 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.69
Bull Case
$65.65
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.6
Base Case
$59.68
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.3
Bear Case
$20.29
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.2 to 18.8
Stabilization Target:
$32.71
(+9.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.5%
Last updated: January 31, 2026 1:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is WMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced WMG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's WMG price and gamma walls.
