WTM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
WTM - White Mountains Insurance Group Ltd.
$2044.93
-7.24 (-0.35%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 06, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WTM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: WTM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.1% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$421.62
Based on -24.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$261.79
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: WTM is currently trading at $2044.93, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2048.56 to $2074.96. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.7) is in line with its historical norms (22.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.1% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WTM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2014.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $360.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, WTM is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2014.01. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $360.00. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$2048.56 -
$2074.96
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 82.4% above Wall St target ($360.00)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.1% growth with -9.4% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$2048.56 -
$2074.96
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2014.01
Resistance Level
$2098.89
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.72
Wall Street Target
$360.00
(-82.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-36.6%
Profit Margin
5.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.1% premium
PE vs Historical
22.7 vs 22.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2046.97
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$2049.02
(+0%)
3-Year Target
$2051.07
(+0%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$2049.14
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.7, Growth: -52.6%)
$1490.75
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -52.6%)
$1463.10
(-29%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -52.6%)
$1243.64
(-39%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 37.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $54.39
Bull Case
$3711.71
(+82%)
Analyst growth 65.5%, PE expands to 41.2
Base Case
$3374.28
(+65%)
Market implied 65.5%, PE stable at 37.5
Bear Case
$1386.65
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 2:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:40 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is WTM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2025-09-22
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2025-08-21
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2025-08-20
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Advanced WTM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's WTM price and gamma walls.
