XOM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
XOM - Exxon Mobil Corporation
$141.40
0.89 (0.63%)
▲
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Jan 30, 2026
0d
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14 traders called XOM this week
84% bullish • 3 bearish
84% bullish • 3 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: XOM trades at premium valuation expecting 5.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: XOM trades at premium valuation expecting 5.7% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$151.12
Based on 4.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$93.84
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: XOM is currently trading at $141.40, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $120.15 to $134.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 20.2) compared to its historical average (17.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XOM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $142.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: XOM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XOM is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $142.34. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: XOM has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$120.15 -
$134.44
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
XOM is technically overbought (RSI 79). Consider hedging now to protect against a potential pullback while keeping your upside.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.2% above fair value)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading above Wall St target ($133.32)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 5.7% growth with -5.1% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$120.15 -
$134.44
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$128.87
Resistance Level
$142.34
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.19
Wall Street Target
$133.32
(-5.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-5.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-8.3%
Profit Margin
9.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.7% premium
PE vs Historical
20.2 vs 17.1
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$148.52
(+6%)
2-Year Target
$156.98
(+12%)
3-Year Target
$165.93
(+18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$140.51
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 5.8%)
$155.44
(+11%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 5.8%)
$140.75
(+0%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 5.8%)
$119.19
(-15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 19.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.88
Bull Case
$152.22
(+8%)
Analyst growth 1.1%, PE expands to 21.9
Base Case
$138.39
(-2%)
Market implied 1.1%, PE stable at 19.9
Bear Case
$93.04
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:05 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:05 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:05 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is XOM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Val T. Hoyle
SELL
2025-09-23
Julie Johnson
SELL
2025-09-16
Darrin L Talley
SELL
2158 shares
2025-08-22
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