XP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
XP - XP Inc. Class A Common Stock
$19.51
-0.58 (-2.89%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 17, 2026
15d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: XP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: XP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.69
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.33
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: XP is currently trading at $19.51, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.32 to $19.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.8) is in line with its historical norms (1.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.11, while resistance sits at $20.98.
Market Sentiment: XP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.90 (+22.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $17.11, while resistance sits at $20.98.
Market Sentiment: XP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.90 (+22.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$16.32 -
$19.25
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.5% below Wall St target ($23.90)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.32 -
$19.25
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.11
Resistance Level
$20.98
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.84
Wall Street Target
$23.90
(+22.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Profit Margin
29.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
1.8 vs 1.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.15
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$20.82
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$21.51
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
PE COMPRESSION
$19.83
(+2%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 9.1%)
$306.49
(+1471%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.8, Growth: 9.1%)
$25.34
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.6, Growth: 9.1%)
$21.54
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.81
Bull Case
$44.88
(+130%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$40.80
(+109%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$13.87
(-29%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 2:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is XP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's XP price and gamma walls.
