XPO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
XPO - XPO, Inc.
$148.11
-2.80 (-1.86%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 05, 2026
5d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: XPO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: XPO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 3.0% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$177.52
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$110.23
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: XPO is currently trading at $148.11, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $140.88 to $150.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 35.4) is in line with its historical norms (32.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XPO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $143.10, while resistance sits at $155.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, XPO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $143.10, while resistance sits at $155.95.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$140.88 -
$150.30
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
63.8%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($156.08)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 3.0% growth with 2.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$140.88 -
$150.30
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$143.10
Resistance Level
$155.95
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
35.40
Wall Street Target
$156.08
(+3.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-13.9%
Profit Margin
4.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.0% premium
PE vs Historical
35.4 vs 32.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$155.44
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$160.10
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$164.90
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 35→32)
PE COMPRESSION
$150.93
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 35.4, Growth: 17.7%)
$245.93
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 17.7%)
$154.92
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 17.7%)
$131.68
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 34.72 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.35
Bull Case
$182.22
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 36.5
Base Case
$150.91
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 34.7
Bear Case
$115.45
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 31.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 4:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is XPO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Allison Landry
SELL
3250 shares
2025-09-11
Lisa C. McClain
SELL
2025-08-04
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