YMM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YMM - Full Truck Alliance Co. Ltd. American Depositary Shares (each representing 20 Class A Ordinary Shares)
$9.90
-0.25 (-2.46%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 04, 2026
Get Alerted When YMM Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: YMM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: YMM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.39
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$7.07
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YMM is currently trading at $9.90, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.88 to $11.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 2.1) is in line with its historical norms (2.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YMM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.21 (+30.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YMM is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $9.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $13.21 (+30.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$9.88 -
$11.06
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.1% below Wall St target ($13.21)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.0% growth with 10.8% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.88 -
$11.06
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.70
Resistance Level
$10.24
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.15
Wall Street Target
$13.21
(+30.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-20.0%
Profit Margin
31.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
2.2 vs 2.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.35
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$10.56
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$10.77
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
PE COMPRESSION
$10.00
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.7%)
$117.15
(+1054%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.2, Growth: 3.7%)
$11.31
(+12%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.8, Growth: 3.7%)
$9.62
(-5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.55
Bull Case
$21.85
(+115%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.9
Base Case
$19.86
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 18.1
Bear Case
$6.75
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:39 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is YMM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Software - Application Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Software - Application by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TEAM
Atlassian Corp Plc |
STRONG BUY
33 analysts |
$235 | 57 HOLD |
|
HUBS
HubSpot Inc |
STRONG BUY
36 analysts |
$563 | 49 HOLD |
|
DDOG
Datadog Inc |
STRONG BUY
46 analysts |
$198 | 55 HOLD |
|
INTU
Intuit Inc |
STRONG BUY
34 analysts |
$788 | 48 HOLD |
|
ADSK
Autodesk Inc |
STRONG BUY
32 analysts |
$366 | 57 HOLD |
Advanced YMM Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's YMM price and gamma walls.