ADSK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADSK - Autodesk Inc
$227.14
8.69 (3.98%)
▲
5d:
-4.45%
30d:
-9.1%
90d:
-17.71%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
ADSK is down 7.0% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $280 2026-03-20 with 1,004 OI. Call ratio: 73% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADSK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ADSK shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$427.29
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$265.31
14.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $227.14, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $232.18 to $254.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.5) compared to its historical average (24.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $214.10, while resistance sits at $244.80. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $328.88 (+44.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $214.10, while resistance sits at $244.80. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $328.88 (+44.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$232.18 -
$254.22
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.8% below Wall St target ($328.88)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$232.18 -
$254.22
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$214.10
Resistance Level
$244.80
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Apr 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.49
Wall Street Target
$328.88
(+44.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Profit Margin
15.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.5 vs 24.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$212.15
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$198.15
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$185.07
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→24)
$227.89
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 13.8%)
$353.42
(+56%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.5, Growth: 13.8%)
$334.88
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.6, Growth: 13.8%)
$284.65
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.85 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.22
Bull Case
$480.59
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 46.0
Base Case
$436.90
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.9
Bear Case
$148.55
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.5 to 24.0
Stabilization Target:
$279.69
(+23.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 13, 2026 6:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
2
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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Advanced ADSK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADSK price and gamma walls.
