ADSK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADSK - Autodesk Inc
$233.86
2.83 (1.22%)
▲
5d:
-6.84%
30d:
-2.28%
90d:
+4.64%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
13d
Smart Money Distribution
ADSK is up 5.9% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $185 2026-06-18 with 4,371 OI. Put ratio: 69% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADSK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADSK shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$414.82
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$257.57
9.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $233.86, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $230.49 to $245.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.1) compared to its historical average (23.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 6.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $225.28, while resistance sits at $255.13.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $325.80 (+39.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $225.28, while resistance sits at $255.13.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $325.80 (+39.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$230.49 -
$245.61
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADSK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 39.3% below Wall St target ($325.80)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.8%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$230.49 -
$245.61
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$225.28
Resistance Level
$255.14
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.07
Wall Street Target
$325.80
(+39.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.3%
Profit Margin
15.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
20.1 vs 23.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$222.63
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$211.95
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$201.77
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→23)
$234.28
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 13.8%)
$378.68
(+62%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$344.78
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$293.07
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 44.26 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.22
Bull Case
$508.27
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 48.7
Base Case
$462.06
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 44.3
Bear Case
$157.10
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.1 to 23.3
Stabilization Target:
$271.53
(+16.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 6:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
4
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
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Advanced ADSK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADSK price and gamma walls.
