ADSK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADSK - Autodesk Inc
$207.48
7.72 (3.86%)
▲
5d:
+9.36%
30d:
-12.33%
90d:
-12.78%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADSK appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.1% annual earnings decline despite 231% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADSK appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.1% annual earnings decline despite 231% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$395.24
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$245.41
15.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $207.48, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $193.16 to $231.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.8) compared to its historical average (22.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 231.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $209.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $318.53 (+53.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $209.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $318.53 (+53.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$193.16 -
$231.94
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
88.1%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 53.5% below Wall St target ($318.53)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$193.16 -
$231.94
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$185.50
Resistance Level
$209.92
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.80
Wall Street Target
$318.53
(+53.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
231.4%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 22.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$192.75
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$179.06
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$166.35
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→22)
$207.43
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.8%)
$374.21
(+80%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 13.8%)
$305.89
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$260.01
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.84
Bull Case
$374.38
(+80%)
Analyst growth 70.4%, PE expands to 32.1
Base Case
$340.35
(+64%)
Market implied 70.4%, PE stable at 29.2
Bear Case
$135.84
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.8 to 22.2
Stabilization Target:
$258.71
(+24.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+24.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 5:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
4
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
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