YUM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YUM - Yum! Brands, Inc.
$155.50
0.02 (0.01%)
▲
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: YUM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: YUM shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.4% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$216.43
Based on 7.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$134.39
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUM is currently trading at $155.50, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.56 to $156.78. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 23.3) is in line with its historical norms (23.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $151.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $151.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$151.56 -
$156.78
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($166.88)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$151.56 -
$156.78
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$151.60
Resistance Level
$160.97
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.26
Wall Street Target
$166.88
(+7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Profit Margin
17.9%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.4% premium
PE vs Historical
23.3 vs 23.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$156.10
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$156.73
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$157.35
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→23)
PE COMPRESSION
$155.61
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.3, Growth: 10.2%)
$207.83
(+34%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.2%)
$199.27
(+28%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 10.2%)
$169.38
(+9%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.02 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.13
Bull Case
$220.78
(+42%)
Analyst growth 30.3%, PE expands to 33.0
Base Case
$200.71
(+29%)
Market implied 30.3%, PE stable at 30.0
Bear Case
$104.73
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YUM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Scott Mezvinsky
SELL
275 shares
2025-10-01
David W Gibbs
SELL
7176 shares
2025-09-15
Ro Khanna
BUY
2025-09-05
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