YUMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YUMC - Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$49.19
0.10 (0.20%)
▲
5d:
-1.56%
30d:
-6.0%
90d:
+3.04%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: YUMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: YUMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$79.63
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.44
0.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUMC is currently trading at $49.19, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $50.35 to $54.58. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.1) is in line with its historical norms (16.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: YUMC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.39 (+26.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $48.17. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: YUMC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.39 (+26.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$50.35 -
$54.58
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.8% below Wall St target ($62.39)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$50.35 -
$54.58
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.17
Resistance Level
$53.45
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Apr 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.10
Wall Street Target
$62.39
(+26.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.3%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 16.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.52
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$45.90
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$44.34
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$49.05
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.6, Growth: 11.9%)
$93.91
(+91%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 11.9%)
$68.93
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 11.9%)
$58.59
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.51
Bull Case
$73.87
(+42%)
Analyst growth 29.8%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$67.16
(+29%)
Market implied 29.8%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$35.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 16.7
Stabilization Target:
$54.41
(+10.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 05, 2026 6:31 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:31 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YUMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Xueling Lu
SELL
23504 shares
2026-02-24
Joey Wat
SELL
104000 shares
2026-02-13
Joey Wat
SELL
4613 shares
2026-02-11
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