YUMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YUMC - Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$48.35
-1.24 (-2.50%)
▼
5d:
-7.0%
30d:
-11.95%
90d:
-1.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: YUMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: YUMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$80.10
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.74
2.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUMC is currently trading at $48.35, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $51.12 to $54.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.8) compared to its historical average (16.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $48.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: YUMC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.43 (+29.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is showing support break momentum. The price is currently testing key support at $48.41. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: YUMC has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.43 (+29.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$51.12 -
$54.78
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.1% below Wall St target ($62.43)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-7.0%) - monitor closely
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$51.12 -
$54.78
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$48.41
Resistance Level
$54.84
Current Trend
Support Break
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.84
Wall Street Target
$62.43
(+29.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.3%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.8 vs 16.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.37
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$44.47
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$42.64
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→17)
$48.27
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.9%)
$102.04
(+111%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.8, Growth: 11.9%)
$67.76
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.6, Growth: 11.9%)
$57.59
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.61 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.51
Bull Case
$73.87
(+42%)
Analyst growth 29.8%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$67.16
(+29%)
Market implied 29.8%, PE stable at 20.6
Bear Case
$35.18
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.8 to 16.8
Stabilization Target:
$54.73
(+13.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 31, 2026 3:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YUMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Xueling Lu
SELL
23504 shares
2026-02-24
Joey Wat
SELL
104000 shares
2026-02-13
Joey Wat
SELL
4613 shares
2026-02-11
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