YUMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YUMC - Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$49.42
-1.09 (-2.16%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 04, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: YUMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: YUMC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.7% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.18
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.06
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUMC is currently trading at $49.42, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $47.50 to $49.04. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 17.8) is in line with its historical norms (16.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.06, while resistance sits at $51.38.
Market Sentiment: YUMC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.29 (+15.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $47.06, while resistance sits at $51.38.
Market Sentiment: YUMC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $58.29 (+15.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$47.50 -
$49.04
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($58.29)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 1.7% growth with 4.4% revenue growth
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$47.50 -
$49.04
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$47.06
Resistance Level
$51.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.82
Wall Street Target
$58.29
(+15.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.7% premium
PE vs Historical
17.8 vs 16.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$51.37
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$52.24
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$53.13
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$50.39
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 14.4%)
$94.59
(+87%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.8, Growth: 14.4%)
$75.57
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.1, Growth: 14.4%)
$64.24
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.41
Bull Case
$64.91
(+29%)
Analyst growth 17.6%, PE expands to 22.9
Base Case
$59.01
(+17%)
Market implied 17.6%, PE stable at 20.8
Bear Case
$34.12
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 30, 2026 5:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YUMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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