ZGN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZGN - Ermenegildo Zegna N.V.
$10.86
0.44 (4.22%)
▲
5d:
+6.16%
30d:
-1.45%
90d:
+5.23%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 02, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ZGN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ZGN trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -5.1% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.37
29.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZGN is currently trading at $10.86, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.78 to $11.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.1) compared to its historical average (24.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZGN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $10.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: ZGN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZGN is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $10.80. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: ZGN has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Fair Price Range
$9.78 -
$11.07
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.2%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($11.93)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.78 -
$11.07
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.17
Resistance Level
$10.81
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.11
Wall Street Target
$11.93
(+9.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
0.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Profit Margin
5.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.1 vs 24.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$10.31
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$9.78
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$9.28
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→25)
$10.86
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 30.1%)
$25.32
(+133%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.1, Growth: 30.1%)
$23.91
(+120%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.9, Growth: 30.1%)
$20.32
(+87%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.42
Bull Case
$13.10
(+31%)
Analyst growth 23.0%, PE expands to 25.4
Base Case
$11.91
(+19%)
Market implied 23.0%, PE stable at 23.1
Bear Case
$6.58
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.1 to 24.7
Stabilization Target:
$12.71
(+17.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 9:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZGN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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