ZTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZTO - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$24.25
0.19 (0.79%)
▲
5d:
-2.73%
30d:
-0.53%
90d:
+13.96%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 27, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ZTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ZTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.0% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$38.86
Based on 7.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$24.13
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZTO is currently trading at $24.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.33 to $25.19. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.6) is in line with its historical norms (1.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 790.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.25, while resistance sits at $26.20.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.16 (+17.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.25, while resistance sits at $26.20.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.16 (+17.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$23.33 -
$25.19
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.16)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$23.33 -
$25.19
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.25
Resistance Level
$26.20
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 27, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.63
Wall Street Target
$28.16
(+17.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
790.7%
Profit Margin
18.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.6 vs 1.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$23.10
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$22.17
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$21.29
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$23.54
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 11.8%)
$462.40
(+1822%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.6, Growth: 11.8%)
$33.59
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 11.8%)
$28.56
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.57
Bull Case
$53.81
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 17.1
Base Case
$48.92
(+96%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.6
Bear Case
$16.63
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.6 to 1.8
Stabilization Target:
$26.61
(+10.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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