ZTO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZTO - ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. American Depositary Shares, each representing one Class A ordinary share
$21.93
-0.31 (-1.39%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 17, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ZTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ZTO shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.77
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.73
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZTO is currently trading at $21.93, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.30 to $22.21. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.8) is in line with its historical norms (1.8). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZTO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $21.43. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$21.30 -
$22.21
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($23.86)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$21.30 -
$22.21
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.43
Resistance Level
$22.56
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.78
Wall Street Target
$23.86
(+7.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
11.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.9%
Profit Margin
18.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.3% premium
PE vs Historical
1.8 vs 1.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.31
(+0%)
2-Year Target
$22.37
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$22.44
(+1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
$22.67
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 10.4%)
$374.19
(+1583%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.8, Growth: 10.4%)
$29.90
(+34%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.5, Growth: 10.4%)
$25.41
(+14%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.55
Bull Case
$48.33
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$43.94
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$14.94
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 10:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZTO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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