ADP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADP - Automatic Data Processing
$205.47
4.22 (2.10%)
▲
5d:
-2.02%
30d:
-4.15%
90d:
-20.62%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 29, 2026
29d
Smart Money Accumulation
ADP is down 7.3% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $300 2026-03-20 with 861 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADP trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.5% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$338.24
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$210.02
2.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADP is currently trading at $205.47, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $205.40 to $218.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.8) compared to its historical average (20.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $198.59, while resistance sits at $214.30.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.40 (+34.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $198.59, while resistance sits at $214.30.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $271.40 (+34.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$205.40 -
$218.09
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.9% below Wall St target ($271.40)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$205.40 -
$218.09
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$198.59
Resistance Level
$214.30
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.82
Wall Street Target
$271.40
(+34.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
11.5%
Profit Margin
20.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.8 vs 20.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$188.17
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$175.94
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$164.50
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→21)
$201.47
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 9.1%)
$348.11
(+73%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.8, Growth: 9.1%)
$261.39
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.3, Growth: 9.1%)
$222.19
(+10%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.05 | Current EPS (TTM): $10.41
Bull Case
$263.84
(+26%)
Analyst growth 14.9%, PE expands to 22.1
Base Case
$239.86
(+14%)
Market implied 14.9%, PE stable at 20.1
Bear Case
$141.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.8 to 20.6
Stabilization Target:
$246.47
(+22.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 4:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:30 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:30 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
11
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Christopher D'ambrosio
SELL
543 shares
2026-03-16
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-24
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-02-17
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Advanced ADP Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADP price and gamma walls.
