ADTN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADTN - ADTRAN Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$12.19
-0.74 (-5.72%)
▼
5d:
+0.99%
30d:
+19.51%
90d:
+39.31%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
ADTN is up 12.6% this week, but smart money is buying puts. Top strike: $10 2026-04-17 with 69 OI. Put ratio: 63% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
Get Alerted When ADTN Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ADTN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ADTN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.86
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.68
26.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADTN is currently trading at $12.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $9.74 to $11.88. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.1) compared to its historical average (18.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.30, while resistance sits at $13.10. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADTN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+14.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADTN is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $10.30, while resistance sits at $13.10. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ADTN has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.00 (+14.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Fair Price Range
$9.74 -
$11.88
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($14.00)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$9.74 -
$11.88
Current vs Fair Value
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$10.30
Resistance Level
$13.10
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.08
Wall Street Target
$14.00
(+14.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-60.0%
Profit Margin
-4.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.1 vs 18.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.70
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$11.23
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$10.78
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→18)
$12.21
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 51.6%)
$57.18
(+369%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.1, Growth: 51.6%)
$41.14
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.7, Growth: 51.6%)
$34.97
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.1 to 18.2
Stabilization Target:
$13.80
(+13.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 5:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:53 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ADTN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Timothy P Santo
BUY
6150 shares
2025-11-28
Nikos Theodosopoulos
BUY
12859 shares
2025-11-26
Thomas R Stanton
BUY
40928 shares
2025-11-24
Top Rated Communication Equipment Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Communication Equipment by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
CSCO
Cisco Systems Inc |
BUY
26 analysts |
$89 | 62 BUY |
|
ZBRA
Zebra Technologies Corpo… |
BUY
19 analysts |
$336 | 55 HOLD |
|
LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$673 | 51 HOLD |
|
CIEN
Ciena Corp |
BUY
16 analysts |
$329 | 56 HOLD |
|
MSI
Motorola Solutions Inc |
STRONG BUY
13 analysts |
$502 | 60 HOLD |
