LITE Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
LITE - Lumentum Holdings Inc. Common Stock
$1000.17
-30.20 (-2.93%)
▼
5d:
+12.05%
30d:
+21.38%
90d:
+71.42%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.6/10
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9 traders called LITE this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: LITE is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: LITE is fairly valued with market pricing in 0.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$876.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$544.12
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: LITE is currently trading at $1000.17, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $831.84 to $967.50. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 57.2) is in line with its historical norms (56.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $854.62, while resistance sits at $1085.68.
Market Sentiment: LITE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, LITE is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $854.62, while resistance sits at $1085.68.
Market Sentiment: LITE has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$831.84 -
$967.50
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding LITE? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($1081.10)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$831.84 -
$967.50
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$854.62
Resistance Level
$1085.68
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
57.24
Wall Street Target
$1081.10
(+4.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
90.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.1%
Profit Margin
17.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.6% premium
PE vs Historical
57.2 vs 56.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$1036.55
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$1042.77
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$1049.03
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 57→56)
PE COMPRESSION
$1029.92
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 57.2, Growth: 118.3%)
$3477.50
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.0, Growth: 118.3%)
$1338.94
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.7, Growth: 118.3%)
$1138.10
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (60x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (57x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 59.52 | Forward EPS (Implied): $17.31
Bull Case
$1244.17
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 62.5
Base Case
$1030.37
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 59.5
Bear Case
$788.23
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 53.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 2:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is LITE showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Wajid Ali
SELL
5302 shares
2026-02-27
Yuen Wupen
SELL
3157 shares
2026-02-17
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Advanced LITE Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's LITE price and gamma walls.
