AES Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AES - AES Corporation
$14.58
-0.06 (-0.41%)
▼
5d:
-0.55%
30d:
-0.68%
90d:
+2.68%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
26d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.9/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AES shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.34
Based on 4.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.39
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AES is currently trading at $14.58, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.63 to $14.70. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.1) is in line with its historical norms (6.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 951.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AES is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.55. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.63 -
$14.70
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.63 -
$14.70
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.55
Resistance Level
$14.71
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.13
Wall Street Target
$15.00
(+2.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
951.1%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.1 vs 6.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.54
(0%)
2-Year Target
$14.49
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$14.45
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→6)
$14.62
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.9%)
$59.80
(+310%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.1, Growth: 4.9%)
$16.82
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.2, Growth: 4.9%)
$14.30
(-2%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 7.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.92
Bull Case
$19.96
(+37%)
Analyst growth 23.9%, PE expands to 8.4
Base Case
$18.14
(+24%)
Market implied 23.9%, PE stable at 7.6
Bear Case
$9.96
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.1 to 6.2
Stabilization Target:
$14.75
(+1.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+1.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 3:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:50 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AES showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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