AIG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AIG - American International Group, Inc.
$74.88
0.52 (0.70%)
▲
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 10, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AIG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AIG shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly low pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$116.31
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$72.22
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AIG is currently trading at $74.88, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $72.26 to $83.86. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (10.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.95 (+16.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIG is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $74.92. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $86.95 (+16.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$72.26 -
$83.86
Company Quality Score
64/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($86.95)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$72.26 -
$83.86
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$71.25
Resistance Level
$74.92
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.47
Wall Street Target
$86.95
(+16.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-4.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 10.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$72.87
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$71.42
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$69.99
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$74.63
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.0%)
$245.86
(+231%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 12.0%)
$104.42
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.1, Growth: 12.0%)
$88.76
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.20 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.56
Bull Case
$114.00
(+52%)
Analyst growth 41.2%, PE expands to 14.5
Base Case
$103.63
(+38%)
Market implied 41.2%, PE stable at 13.2
Bear Case
$49.91
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 10.1
Stabilization Target:
$79.30
(+6.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+6.6%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 7:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AIG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
John C Inglis
BUY
15 shares
2025-09-30
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