ACGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACGL - Arch Capital Group Ltd
$93.98
0.52 (0.56%)
▲
5d:
+0.19%
30d:
-3.21%
90d:
-4.47%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 28, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ACGL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ACGL shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$126.81
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$78.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACGL is currently trading at $93.98, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $93.98 to $97.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 9.5) is in line with its historical norms (9.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 94.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $92.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACGL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.92 (+15.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $92.79. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ACGL has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $108.92 (+15.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$93.98 -
$97.62
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($108.92)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$93.98 -
$97.62
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$92.79
Resistance Level
$95.62
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.47
Wall Street Target
$108.92
(+15.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
94.6%
Profit Margin
24.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.5 vs 9.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$92.95
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$91.92
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$90.91
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$94.10
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 6.9%)
$267.76
(+185%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.5, Growth: 6.9%)
$114.87
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: 6.9%)
$97.64
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.19 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.00
Bull Case
$78.50
(-17%)
Analyst growth -23.6%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$71.36
(-24%)
Market implied -23.6%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$63.55
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.5 to 9.8
Stabilization Target:
$97.28
(+3.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 7:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian S Posner
SELL
3000 shares
2026-03-11
David Gansberg
SELL
5907 shares
2026-03-10
Nicolas Papadopoulo
SELL
21930 shares
2026-03-10
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