ACGL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ACGL - Arch Capital Group Ltd
$102.20
3.65 (3.70%)
▲
5d:
+8.34%
30d:
+16.64%
90d:
+7.03%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ACGL is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: ACGL is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$123.89
Based on 5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$76.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ACGL is currently trading at $102.20, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.08 to $96.16. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.3) is in line with its historical norms (9.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ACGL is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $102.25. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$89.08 -
$96.16
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
47.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.3% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($108.97)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$89.08 -
$96.16
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$90.91
Resistance Level
$102.25
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.33
Wall Street Target
$108.97
(+6.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
94.6%
Profit Margin
24.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
10.3 vs 9.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$104.35
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$106.54
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$108.77
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$102.11
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 6.5%)
$260.34
(+155%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.3, Growth: 6.5%)
$123.51
(+21%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.8, Growth: 6.5%)
$104.98
(+3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.00
Bull Case
$82.48
(-19%)
Analyst growth -23.9%, PE expands to 8.3
Base Case
$74.98
(-27%)
Market implied -23.9%, PE stable at 7.6
Bear Case
$67.01
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 05, 2026 11:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ACGL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Brian S Posner
SELL
3000 shares
2026-03-11
David Gansberg
SELL
5907 shares
2026-03-10
Nicolas Papadopoulo
SELL
21930 shares
2026-03-10
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