AMBA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMBA - Ambarella, Inc. Ordinary Shares
$64.04
-1.86 (-2.82%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
Smart Money Accumulation
AMBA is down 4.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $80 2026-03-20 with 1,017 OI. Call ratio: 97% View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMBA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AMBA shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 1.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.71
Based on 3.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.62
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMBA is currently trading at $64.04, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $65.62 to $73.25. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 106.6) is in line with its historical norms (112.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $63.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMBA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.45 (+47.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMBA is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $63.08. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMBA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (6th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $97.45 (+47.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$65.62 -
$73.25
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
6th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
65.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 6th percentile)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.9% below Wall St target ($97.45)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$65.62 -
$73.25
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$6.45
(10.1%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$63.08
Resistance Level
$71.40
Current Trend
Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
106.62
Wall Street Target
$97.45
(+47.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
31.2%
Profit Margin
-21.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
106.6 vs 112.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$64.85
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$63.81
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$62.79
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 107→112)
$65.96
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 106.6, Growth: 3.8%)
$73.65
(+12%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 3.8%)
$15.41
(-77%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 3.8%)
$13.09
(-80%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 106.6 to 112.0
Stabilization Target:
$69.23
(+5.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.0%
Last updated: January 30, 2026 9:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:55 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMBA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
9
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chi-Hong Ju
SELL
6156 shares
2025-10-14
Chi-Hong Ju
SELL
5057 shares
2025-10-13
Elizabeth M Schwarting
SELL
2664 shares
2025-10-06
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Advanced AMBA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AMBA price and gamma walls.
