AMH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMH - AMERICAN HOMES 4 RENT
$31.32
0.40 (1.29%)
▲
5d:
-2.09%
30d:
-2.82%
90d:
-1.73%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 19, 2026
16d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AMH is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: AMH is fairly valued with market pricing in 1.6% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.77
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.49
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMH is currently trading at $31.32, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $31.18 to $32.07. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 39.1) is in line with its historical norms (37.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.60 (+16.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMH is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.60. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AMH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $36.60 (+16.8%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$31.18 -
$32.07
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($36.60)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$31.18 -
$32.07
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.60
Resistance Level
$32.45
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
39.11
Wall Street Target
$36.60
(+16.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.8%
Profit Margin
24.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
39.1 vs 37.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.82
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$32.33
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$32.85
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 39→37)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.33
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 39.1, Growth: 12.6%)
$44.67
(+43%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 12.6%)
$25.47
(-19%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 12.6%)
$21.65
(-31%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 26.09 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.18
Bull Case
$22.99
(-27%)
Analyst growth -32.1%, PE expands to 28.7
Base Case
$20.90
(-33%)
Market implied -32.1%, PE stable at 26.1
Bear Case
$20.94
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: February 01, 2026 11:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Lisa C. McClain
BUY
2025-09-25
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