AMRC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMRC - Ameresco, Inc.
$24.77
-1.98 (-7.40%)
▼
5d:
-10.64%
30d:
-18.68%
90d:
-17.93%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AMRC is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AMRC is down 10.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.34
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.78
47.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMRC is currently trading at $24.77, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.50 to $31.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 15.1) compared to its historical average (23.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 13.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.60 (+72.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 7.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (24th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.60 (+72.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$25.50 -
$31.20
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
24th percentile
(LOW)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.6%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 24th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-7.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 72.0% below Wall St target ($42.60)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -10.6% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$25.50 -
$31.20
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.81
(11.3%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.36
Resistance Level
$29.12
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.11
Wall Street Target
$42.60
(+72.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-51.7%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-13.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.1 vs 23.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-13.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.29
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$20.06
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$18.06
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→24)
$28.20
(+14%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 41.2%)
$103.08
(+316%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.1, Growth: 41.2%)
$69.69
(+181%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.8, Growth: 41.2%)
$59.23
(+139%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.83
Bull Case
$57.38
(+107%)
Analyst growth 95.7%, PE expands to 35.3
Base Case
$52.16
(+88%)
Market implied 95.7%, PE stable at 32.1
Bear Case
$18.13
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.1 to 23.6
Stabilization Target:
$38.69
(+56.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+56.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 10:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMRC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David J Corrsin
SELL
19 shares
2026-03-12
Louis P Maltezos
SELL
306 shares
2026-03-12
David J Corrsin
SELL
50 shares
2026-03-10
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