AMRC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AMRC - Ameresco, Inc.
$31.34
-1.03 (-3.18%)
▼
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Mar 02, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMRC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AMRC shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.39
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.25
13.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AMRC is currently trading at $31.34, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $29.87 to $32.30. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.0) is in line with its historical norms (25.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMRC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+34.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AMRC is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $30.69. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.2% recently.
Market Sentiment: AMRC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.50 (+34.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$29.87 -
$32.30
Company Quality Score
60/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
50th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
77.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 50th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.2%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.4% below Wall St target ($43.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$29.87 -
$32.30
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.52
(11.2%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$30.69
Resistance Level
$34.01
Current Trend
Downtrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.99
Wall Street Target
$43.50
(+34.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
6.1%
Profit Margin
3.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
27.0 vs 25.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.05
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$33.74
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$34.45
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→25)
PE COMPRESSION
$32.29
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.0, Growth: 35.6%)
$80.77
(+150%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: 35.6%)
$66.74
(+106%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: 35.6%)
$56.73
(+75%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 27.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.19
Bull Case
$36.93
(+18%)
Analyst growth 0.8%, PE expands to 30.8
Base Case
$33.57
(+7%)
Market implied 0.8%, PE stable at 28.0
Bear Case
$22.65
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 23.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 2:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AMRC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
David J Corrsin
SELL
19 shares
2025-09-15
David J Corrsin
SELL
19 shares
2025-09-10
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