AOS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AOS - A.O. Smith Corporation
$56.01
-1.96 (-3.38%)
▼
5d:
-4.42%
30d:
-11.49%
90d:
-30.39%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AOS is down 6.7% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $80 2026-07-17 with 293 OI. Call ratio: 60% View Scanner →
Strength: 4.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AOS shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.63
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$60.00
6.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AOS is currently trading at $56.01, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.32 to $65.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.4) compared to its historical average (16.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: AOS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.30 (+27.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AOS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $55.98. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: AOS has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $71.30 (+27.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$59.32 -
$65.95
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AOS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading 27.3% below Wall St target ($71.30)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$59.32 -
$65.95
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$55.98
Resistance Level
$61.44
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.40
Wall Street Target
$71.30
(+27.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-10.5%
Profit Margin
13.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 16.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$52.59
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$49.39
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$46.37
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$56.06
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.8%)
$125.46
(+124%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 10.8%)
$76.18
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 10.8%)
$64.76
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.75
Bull Case
$71.07
(+27%)
Analyst growth 11.5%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$64.61
(+15%)
Market implied 11.5%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$39.42
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.4 to 16.2
Stabilization Target:
$67.71
(+20.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 15, 2026 11:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Darrell W Schuh
SELL
1104 shares
2026-03-04
Darrell W Schuh
SELL
356 shares
2026-02-13
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Advanced AOS Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AOS price and gamma walls.
