APA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APA - APA Corporation Common Stock
$38.98
1.87 (5.04%)
▲
5d:
+9.62%
30d:
+2.85%
90d:
+39.61%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
APA is down 5.5% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $35 2026-06-18 with 5,984 OI. Call ratio: 61% View Scanner →
Strength: 3.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: APA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: APA shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.53
Based on -13.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.74
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APA is currently trading at $38.98, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $36.53 to $40.52. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 9.4) compared to its historical average (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.17, while resistance sits at $42.09. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: APA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APA is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $35.17, while resistance sits at $42.09. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: APA has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$36.53 -
$40.52
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
50.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding APA? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.0%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($41.92)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$36.53 -
$40.52
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$35.17
Resistance Level
$42.09
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.42
Wall Street Target
$41.92
(+7.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.2%
Profit Margin
18.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
9.4 vs 11.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$36.99
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$35.11
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$33.32
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→11)
$38.92
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: -31.6%)
$66.60
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.4, Growth: -31.6%)
$28.42
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.0, Growth: -31.6%)
$24.15
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 8.65 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.29
Bull Case
$39.39
(+1%)
Analyst growth -3.5%, PE expands to 9.5
Base Case
$35.81
(-8%)
Market implied -3.5%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$25.23
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 9.4 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$45.53
(+16.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+16.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 16, 2026 12:18 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:18 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:18 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew Regis Bob
SELL
23000 shares
2026-03-18
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Advanced APA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APA price and gamma walls.
