APG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APG - APi Group Corporation
$41.57
-0.65 (-1.54%)
▼
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Last Updated: January 30, 2026
Earnings: Feb 25, 2026
24d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.2% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.74
Based on -4.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.98
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APG is currently trading at $41.57, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.66 to $42.49. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 33.0) is in line with its historical norms (30.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APG is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $41.11. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Fair Price Range
$39.66 -
$42.49
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
68.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($44.90)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.2% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$39.66 -
$42.49
Current vs Fair Value
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$41.11
Resistance Level
$43.75
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
32.97
Wall Street Target
$44.90
(+6.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
33.3%
Profit Margin
3.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.2% premium
PE vs Historical
33.0 vs 30.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.15
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$44.10
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$45.07
(+7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 33→31)
PE COMPRESSION
$42.24
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 33.0, Growth: -12.2%)
$30.78
(+-27%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 22.3, Growth: -12.2%)
$20.82
(-51%)
Bear:
(PE: 19.0, Growth: -12.2%)
$17.70
(-58%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 26.18 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.59
Bull Case
$50.20
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 27.5
Base Case
$41.57
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 26.2
Bear Case
$31.80
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 23.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Last updated: January 31, 2026 12:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
7
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2025-09-30
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2025-09-12
Martin E Franklin
SELL
1200000 shares
2025-09-02
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