APP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APP - Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
$527.06
-37.55 (-6.65%)
▼
5d:
+18.19%
30d:
-12.97%
90d:
+35.9%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: APP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.2% annual earnings decline despite 113% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: APP appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -4.2% annual earnings decline despite 113% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1026.25
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$637.22
17.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APP is currently trading at $527.06, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $475.48 to $574.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.0) compared to its historical average (28.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 113.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $418.46, while resistance sits at $576.46. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: APP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $654.47 (+24.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $418.46, while resistance sits at $576.46. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: APP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $654.47 (+24.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$475.48 -
$574.11
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 24.2% below Wall St target ($654.47)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$475.48 -
$574.11
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$418.46
Resistance Level
$576.46
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
25.00
Wall Street Target
$654.47
(+24.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
59.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
113.1%
Profit Margin
64.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.0 vs 28.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$504.92
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$483.72
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$463.40
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→28)
$526.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.0, Growth: 31.1%)
$1187.96
(+125%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 31.1%)
$1034.83
(+96%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 31.1%)
$879.60
(+67%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (49x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (25x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 49.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.52
Bull Case
$1136.47
(+116%)
Analyst growth 83.0%, PE expands to 53.9
Base Case
$1033.15
(+96%)
Market implied 83.0%, PE stable at 49.0
Bear Case
$383.93
(-27%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 41.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.0 to 28.4
Stabilization Target:
$598.67
(+13.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 6:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:14 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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SELL
2026-03-30
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BUY
2026-03-23
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SELL
2026-03-18
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