APP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APP - Applovin Corporation Class A Common Stock
$468.55
-30.32 (-6.08%)
▼
5d:
+1.86%
30d:
+23.58%
90d:
+15.2%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 5.2/10
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4 traders called APP this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: APP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 8.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$1010.51
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$627.45
25.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APP is currently trading at $468.55, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $403.85 to $477.99. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 22.6) compared to its historical average (29.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 113.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $430.25, while resistance sits at $512.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: APP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $639.57 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APP is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $430.25, while resistance sits at $512.69. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: APP has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $639.57 (+36.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$403.85 -
$477.99
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-6.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($639.57)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$403.85 -
$477.99
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$430.25
Resistance Level
$512.69
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.57
Wall Street Target
$639.57
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
59.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
113.0%
Profit Margin
64.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
22.6 vs 29.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$426.85
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$388.86
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$354.25
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→30)
$469.23
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.6, Growth: 32.5%)
$1088.79
(+132%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 32.5%)
$1058.23
(+126%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 32.5%)
$899.49
(+92%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.52
Bull Case
$988.74
(+111%)
Analyst growth 80.2%, PE expands to 47.6
Base Case
$898.86
(+92%)
Market implied 80.2%, PE stable at 43.3
Bear Case
$339.23
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 22.6 to 29.9
Stabilization Target:
$620.62
(+32.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 09, 2026 9:27 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:27 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is APP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-03-18
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