AR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AR - ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION
$35.38
0.47 (1.35%)
▲
5d:
+2.55%
30d:
-2.43%
90d:
-13.41%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
24d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AR appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.2% annual earnings decline despite 161% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AR appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -5.2% annual earnings decline despite 161% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$51.15
Based on 4.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AR is currently trading at $35.38, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.16 to $36.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.7) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.75 (+40.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $49.75 (+40.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$34.16 -
$36.02
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.6% below Wall St target ($49.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.16 -
$36.02
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.82
Resistance Level
$35.88
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.65
Wall Street Target
$49.75
(+40.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
160.6%
Profit Margin
17.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.7 vs 9.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$33.54
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$31.80
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$30.14
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$35.47
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4.4%)
$114.51
(+224%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 4.4%)
$40.21
(+14%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.5, Growth: 4.4%)
$34.18
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.30 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.09
Bull Case
$57.49
(+63%)
Analyst growth 49.7%, PE expands to 12.4
Base Case
$52.27
(+48%)
Market implied 49.7%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$23.74
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$41.64
(+17.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+17.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 1:21 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:21 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Benjamin A Hardesty
SELL
12000 shares
2026-03-19
Yvette K Schultz
SELL
15000 shares
2026-03-09
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