ARR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARR - ARMOUR Residential REIT, Inc.
$16.16
0.43 (2.70%)
▲
5d:
+1.92%
30d:
-10.0%
90d:
-7.84%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Mar 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 22, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ARR shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$20.76
Based on 3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$12.89
Trading above fair value
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 5.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARR is currently trading at $16.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.36 to $18.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.0) compared to its historical average (5.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.7% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 23.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.32, while resistance sits at $17.32.
Market Sentiment: ARR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+17.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARR is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.32, while resistance sits at $17.32.
Market Sentiment: ARR has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $18.50 (+17.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Fair Price Range
$16.36 -
$18.02
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($18.50)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$16.36 -
$18.02
Current vs Fair Value
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.32
Resistance Level
$17.33
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Mar 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.00
Wall Street Target
$18.50
(+17.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
126.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.1%
Profit Margin
85.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.0 vs 5.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.15
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$14.59
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$14.05
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→6)
$15.72
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 2.7%)
$76.35
(+385%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.0, Growth: 2.7%)
$17.05
(+8%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.3, Growth: 2.7%)
$14.50
(-8%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 4.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.30
Bull Case
$16.22
(+2%)
Analyst growth -4.7%, PE expands to 5.2
Base Case
$14.75
(-7%)
Market implied -4.7%, PE stable at 4.7
Bear Case
$10.53
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.0 to 5.6
Stabilization Target:
$17.61
(+11.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+11.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: March 30, 2026 1:49 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Robert C Hain
SELL
6833 shares
2026-01-06
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