EFC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
EFC - Ellington Financial Inc. Common Stock
$13.62
0.03 (0.22%)
▲
5d:
+2.87%
30d:
+8.18%
90d:
+4.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When EFC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: EFC is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: EFC is fairly valued with market pricing in 2.0% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.23
Based on 0.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.21
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: EFC is currently trading at $13.62, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.27 to $13.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EFC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EFC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, EFC is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $13.65. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: EFC has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.27 -
$13.33
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($14.62)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.0% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.27 -
$13.33
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.99
Resistance Level
$13.65
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.35
Wall Street Target
$14.63
(+7.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
81.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
125.8%
Profit Margin
53.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.0% premium
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 6.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.89
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$14.17
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$14.45
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→7)
PE COMPRESSION
$13.58
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: -2.6%)
$37.53
(+176%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.3, Growth: -2.6%)
$12.57
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.2, Growth: -2.6%)
$10.68
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.39 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.62
Bull Case
$17.11
(+26%)
Analyst growth 14.5%, PE expands to 9.2
Base Case
$15.55
(+14%)
Market implied 14.5%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$9.24
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 09, 2026 6:55 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is EFC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Virginia Foxx
BUY
2025-12-30
Top Rated REIT - Mortgage Stocks
Top-rated stocks in REIT - Mortgage by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
RITM
Rithm Capital Corp. |
STRONG BUY
11 analysts |
$14 | 58 HOLD |
|
NLY
Annaly Capital Managemen… |
BUY
14 analysts |
$24 | 59 HOLD |
|
AGNC
AGNC Investment Corp |
BUY
15 analysts |
$11 | 56 HOLD |
|
FBRT
Franklin BSP Realty Trus… |
STRONG BUY
5 analysts |
$13 | 55 HOLD |
|
LADR
Ladder Capital Corp Clas… |
STRONG BUY
6 analysts |
$12 | 61 BUY |