AVAV Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AVAV - AeroVironment, Inc.
$168.29
0.11 (0.07%)
▲
5d:
-9.02%
30d:
-5.3%
90d:
-34.57%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 8, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 23, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
AVAV is down 8.2% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $250 2026-06-18 with 504 OI. Call ratio: 62% View Scanner →
Strength: 5.3/10
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5 traders called AVAV this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AVAV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AVAV shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$197.21
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$122.45
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AVAV is currently trading at $168.29, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $179.31 to $199.84. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 41.5) compared to its historical average (56.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 175.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $164.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AVAV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $309.88 (+84.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AVAV is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $164.61. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AVAV has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $309.88 (+84.1%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$179.31 -
$199.84
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AVAV? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 84.1% below Wall St target ($309.88)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.0%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$179.31 -
$199.84
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$164.61
Resistance Level
$200.86
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 8, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
41.54
Wall Street Target
$309.88
(+84.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
143.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
175.7%
Profit Margin
-13.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
41.5 vs 56.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$151.80
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$136.92
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$123.50
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 42→57)
$168.26
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 41.5, Growth: 40.6%)
$467.94
(+178%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 40.6%)
$247.12
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 40.6%)
$210.05
(+25%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 41.5 to 56.6
Stabilization Target:
$229.28
(+36.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+36.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 11, 2026 7:05 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:05 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:05 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AVAV showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
12
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-04-15
Brian Charles Shackley
SELL
200 shares
2026-03-16
Stephen F Page
SELL
250 shares
2026-03-16
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Advanced AVAV Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AVAV price and gamma walls.
