BFAM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BFAM - BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC.
$69.48
0.86 (1.25%)
▲
5d:
+1.71%
30d:
-17.22%
90d:
-15.09%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BFAM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BFAM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$143.47
Based on 9.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$89.09
22.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BFAM is currently trading at $69.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $73.21 to $85.58. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.1) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFAM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $65.00, while resistance sits at $82.81.
Market Sentiment: BFAM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.56 (+33.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BFAM is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $65.00, while resistance sits at $82.81.
Market Sentiment: BFAM has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $92.56 (+33.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$73.21 -
$85.58
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.2% below Wall St target ($92.56)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$73.21 -
$85.58
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.00
Resistance Level
$82.81
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.10
Wall Street Target
$92.56
(+33.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-6.1%
Profit Margin
6.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$63.23
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$57.54
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$52.36
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→16)
$69.67
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 14.5%)
$190.04
(+174%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: 14.5%)
$104.33
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: 14.5%)
$88.68
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.32
Bull Case
$131.83
(+90%)
Analyst growth 73.0%, PE expands to 23.0
Base Case
$119.85
(+73%)
Market implied 73.0%, PE stable at 20.9
Bear Case
$47.12
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$92.45
(+33.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 9:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BFAM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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