FTDR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
FTDR - Frontdoor, Inc. Common Stock
$61.50
-0.80 (-1.28%)
▼
5d:
-4.83%
30d:
+1.72%
90d:
+8.58%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Apr 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FTDR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: FTDR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$94.47
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$58.66
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 13.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: FTDR is currently trading at $61.50, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $59.37 to $65.45. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.2) is in line with its historical norms (13.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 16.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTDR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.20 (+20.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, FTDR is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $61.47. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $74.20 (+20.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$59.37 -
$65.45
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 20.7% below Wall St target ($74.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$59.37 -
$65.45
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$61.47
Resistance Level
$69.15
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.24
Wall Street Target
$74.20
(+20.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
5.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
16.3%
Profit Margin
12.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.2 vs 13.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$59.96
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$58.46
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$57.00
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$61.49
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 10.7%)
$150.50
(+145%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.2, Growth: 10.7%)
$83.44
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 10.7%)
$70.92
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.50
Bull Case
$98.41
(+60%)
Analyst growth 43.6%, PE expands to 19.6
Base Case
$89.46
(+46%)
Market implied 43.6%, PE stable at 17.8
Bear Case
$42.36
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.2 to 13.2
Stabilization Target:
$66.34
(+7.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 8:19 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is FTDR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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