BGS Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BGS - B&G Foods, Inc.
$4.08
0.01 (0.25%)
▲
5d:
+2.0%
30d:
+0.74%
90d:
-15.7%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BGS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BGS trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.0% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.98
Based on 6.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.34
5.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BGS is currently trading at $4.08, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.89 to $4.09. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.2) compared to its historical average (8.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGS is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BGS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.20 (+27.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BGS is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.18. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BGS has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.20 (+27.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$3.89 -
$4.09
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
76.2%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 27.5% below Wall St target ($5.20)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.89 -
$4.09
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.77
Resistance Level
$4.18
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.25
Wall Street Target
$5.20
(+27.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-65.9%
Profit Margin
-4.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 8.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.75
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$3.45
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$3.18
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→8)
$4.07
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 8.0%)
$17.93
(+339%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 8.0%)
$5.15
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.3, Growth: 8.0%)
$4.37
(+7%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 8.0
Stabilization Target:
$5.22
(+28.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 12:27 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:27 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:27 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BGS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
3
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Andrew D Vogel
SELL
20000 shares
2026-03-13
David L Wenner
SELL
19500 shares
2026-03-13
Martin C Schoch
SELL
11321 shares
2026-03-12
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