BILI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$17.14
-0.29 (-1.66%)
▼
5d:
+6.2%
30d:
-8.1%
90d:
-25.12%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 20, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BILI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 12.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: BILI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 12.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.68
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.85
44.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 2.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $17.14, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.74 to $18.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.9) compared to its historical average (2.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 435.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.48 (+72.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $17.61. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $29.48 (+72.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$16.74 -
$18.06
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 72.0% below Wall St target ($29.48)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.74 -
$18.06
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.79
Resistance Level
$17.62
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.88
Wall Street Target
$29.48
(+72.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
435.8%
Profit Margin
4.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.9 vs 2.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.43
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$13.88
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$12.50
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$18.60
(+9%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 29.9%)
$435.11
(+2439%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.9, Growth: 29.9%)
$37.58
(+119%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.6, Growth: 29.9%)
$31.94
(+86%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.49
Bull Case
$38.35
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 39.1
Base Case
$34.86
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 35.6
Bear Case
$11.85
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.9 to 2.8
Stabilization Target:
$25.51
(+48.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+48.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 04, 2026 9:15 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:15 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:15 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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