BILI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BILI - Bilibili Inc. American Depositary Shares
$20.32
-2.02 (-9.04%)
▼
5d:
-7.55%
30d:
-18.56%
90d:
-32.92%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 19, 2026
4d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BILI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: BILI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$56.81
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$35.28
42.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 3.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BILI is currently trading at $20.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.52 to $24.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 2.4) compared to its historical average (3.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 435.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.17 (+39.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BILI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $20.39. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $31.17 (+39.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$21.52 -
$24.20
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 39.5% below Wall St target ($31.17)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.6% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.52 -
$24.20
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$20.39
Resistance Level
$22.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
May 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
2.37
Wall Street Target
$31.17
(+39.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
435.8%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
2.4 vs 3.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$20.33
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$18.50
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$16.83
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→3)
$21.99
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.0, Growth: 31.9%)
$475.98
(+2031%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 2.4, Growth: 31.9%)
$51.26
(+130%)
Bear:
(PE: 2.0, Growth: 31.9%)
$43.57
(+95%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.32 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.05
Bull Case
$26.98
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.4
Base Case
$22.34
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.3
Bear Case
$17.09
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 2.4 to 3.1
Stabilization Target:
$29.17
(+30.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+30.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 14, 2026 4:02 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:02 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:02 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BILI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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