BLD Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLD - TopBuild Corp. Common Stock
$361.05
-8.12 (-2.20%)
▼
5d:
+3.81%
30d:
-14.34%
90d:
-13.46%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Apr 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 05, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLD trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -6.2% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$712.84
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$442.62
18.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLD is currently trading at $361.05, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $340.88 to $441.53. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.3) compared to its historical average (21.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $365.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BLD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $498.07 (+34.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLD is showing sideways momentum. The price is approaching resistance at $365.39. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: BLD has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $498.07 (+34.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Fair Price Range
$340.88 -
$441.53
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 34.9% below Wall St target ($498.07)
Fair Price Analysis
30-Day Fair Range
$340.88 -
$441.53
Current vs Fair Value
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$331.33
Resistance Level
$365.40
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Apr 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.33
Wall Street Target
$498.07
(+34.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-27.1%
Profit Margin
9.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.3 vs 21.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$346.27
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$324.80
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$304.67
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→21)
$369.10
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 15.7%)
$737.26
(+100%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.3, Growth: 15.7%)
$571.80
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.7, Growth: 15.7%)
$486.03
(+32%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 18.35 | Current EPS (TTM): $18.28
Bull Case
$429.88
(+24%)
Analyst growth 16.5%, PE expands to 20.2
Base Case
$390.80
(+13%)
Market implied 16.5%, PE stable at 18.4
Bear Case
$228.10
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.3 to 21.0
Stabilization Target:
$447.23
(+21.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: April 02, 2026 10:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLD showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Luis Francisco Machado
SELL
1000 shares
2025-11-26
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