BMO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BMO - Bank of Montreal
$174.13
-3.44 (-1.94%)
▼
5d:
-0.38%
30d:
+5.29%
90d:
+27.07%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 25, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: BMO is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: BMO is fairly valued with market pricing in 4.7% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$223.70
Based on 8.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$138.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BMO is currently trading at $174.13, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $163.39 to $173.63. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 10.7) compared to its historical average (9.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BMO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $170.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $155.38. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BMO is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $170.46. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (8th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $155.38. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$163.39 -
$173.63
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
8th percentile
(COMPLACENCY WARNING)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding BMO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 8th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Trading 10.8% above Wall St target ($155.38)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$163.39 -
$173.63
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$4.28
(2.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$170.46
Resistance Level
$178.70
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.69
Wall Street Target
$155.38
(-10.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
15.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
41.2%
Profit Margin
28.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.7% premium
PE vs Historical
10.7 vs 9.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$182.31
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$190.88
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$199.85
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 11→9)
PE COMPRESSION
$173.85
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.3%)
$502.71
(+189%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.7, Growth: 12.3%)
$246.77
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 9.1, Growth: 12.3%)
$209.75
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (19x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (11x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 19.36 | Current EPS (TTM): $9.17
Bull Case
$346.92
(+99%)
Analyst growth 77.6%, PE expands to 21.3
Base Case
$315.38
(+81%)
Market implied 77.6%, PE stable at 19.4
Bear Case
$120.75
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 16.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 03, 2026 8:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BMO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced BMO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BMO price and gamma walls.
