BOOT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BOOT - Boot Barn Holdings, Inc.
$147.00
3.15 (2.19%)
▲
5d:
-3.99%
30d:
-9.87%
90d:
-25.58%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: May 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 20, 2026
1d
Smart Money Accumulation
BOOT is down 11.9% this week, but smart money is accumulating calls. Top strike: $160 2026-06-18 with 524 OI. Call ratio: 90% View Scanner →
Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BOOT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BOOT trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -8.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$305.32
Based on 10.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$189.58
22.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BOOT is currently trading at $147.00, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $151.31 to $168.71. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.9) compared to its historical average (22.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 14.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BOOT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $139.51, while resistance sits at $173.62.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $226.92 (+57.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BOOT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $139.51, while resistance sits at $173.62.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $226.92 (+57.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$151.31 -
$168.71
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 57.7% below Wall St target ($226.92)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$151.31 -
$168.71
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$139.52
Resistance Level
$173.63
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
May 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.90
Wall Street Target
$226.92
(+57.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
16.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
14.8%
Profit Margin
10.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 22.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$131.19
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$119.65
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$109.12
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→22)
$144.02
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.1, Growth: 16.1%)
$293.70
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 16.1%)
$224.84
(+56%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 16.1%)
$191.12
(+33%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $7.14
Bull Case
$194.34
(+35%)
Analyst growth 19.2%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$176.67
(+23%)
Market implied 19.2%, PE stable at 20.8
Bear Case
$100.75
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 22.3
Stabilization Target:
$189.86
(+32.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: May 18, 2026 10:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BOOT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
1
Sells
0
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
BUY
2026-03-03
Gene Eddie Burt
SELL
1200 shares
2025-12-01
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's BOOT price and gamma walls.
